= 後見之明偏見 = 事後諸葛

Hindsight bias, also known as the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect, is a common cognitive distortion where people perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. After an outcome is known, individuals tend to believe that they could have foreseen it, even if there was little or no objective basis for such a prediction beforehand. (指人們在事件發生後，誤以為自己可以預測結果的心理傾向。)

Hindsight bias is fueled by our brain’s desire for coherence and narrative. Once we know the outcome, we reconstruct our memory and reasoning to fit the result, making the world seem more predictable and less random than it truly is.

Examples

• 股市暴跌後，有人說：「我早就知道會這樣！」
• 選舉結束後，覺得某候選人勝選是「意料之中」，即使之前不確定。
• In investing, it can lead to misplaced confidence and risky decisions.
• In history, it can cause us to oversimplify complex events.
• In relationships, it may foster blame or regret over past choices.