“Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it.” — Daniel Kahneman
“The human mind is a story processor, not a logic processor.” — Jonathan Haidt
Impact bias is a cognitive bias that leads us to overestimate the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to future events than they actually do.
Examples
- Positive events: People often believe that achieving a major goal (like getting a promotion/dream job, winning the lottery, or moving to a new city) will make them happy for years. In reality, after a brief period of elation, most return to their baseline level of happiness.
- Negative events: Similarly, we might think a setback (like failing an exam or experiencing a breakup) will devastate us for a long time. Yet, most people adapt more quickly than they expect.
Reasons
- Focalism: We focus too much on the event itself and neglect other aspects of life that will influence our future feelings.
- Immune Neglect: We underestimate our psychological resilience and ability to adapt to new circumstances.
We overestimate:
- How intensely we will feel after future events (good or bad), and
- How long those feelings will last.
Hedonic Happiness vs Eudaimonic Happiness